Fashion pulse: New Zealand - March 2026

Consumer prices (March 2026 quarter)

Clothing and footwear prices in New Zealand rose 1.3 percent in the year to March 2026, according to Statistics New Zealand, moderating from +1.7 percent in the Q4 2025 quarter and running 1.8 percentage points below the +3.1 percent headline CPI reading. Unlike most OECD markets, Stats NZ publishes CPI on a quarterly basis rather than monthly, so the next update will cover the June 2026 quarter on 21 July 2026. Clothing’s quarterly contribution to the all-groups CPI was near-zero (−0.008 percentage points), indicating clothing prices held roughly steady quarter-on-quarter while other categories — notably housing (+0.99 pp contribution) and food (+0.75 pp) — drove the annual rise.

Retail sales (March 2026 — Electronic Card Transactions)

Apparel was the steepest decliner in New Zealand’s March retail data. Electronic card transactions on apparel fell NZD 14 million (−4.2 percent month-on-month, seasonally adjusted) in March, according to Stats NZ — a ~6 percentage-point swing from the +1.9 percent apparel growth recorded in the February 2026 release. All other retail categories were positive or flat in March: consumables +1.1 percent, durables +1.2 percent, motor vehicles +1.9 percent, hospitality −2.4 percent. The softness extends back at least a quarter. The most recent Retail Trade Survey, covering Q4 2025, showed clothing, footwear and personal accessories down 4.9 percent quarter-on-quarter in volume terms — the worst-performing retail category. Total retail volume grew 0.9 percent over the same quarter, meaning fashion retail was a clear underperformer relative to the broader sector.

Imports diverge from spending

Apparel imports tell the opposite story. Textile and textile-article imports (HS codes 50–63, covering fabric through finished apparel) rose +8.8 percent year-on-year to NZD 288.5 million in March, according to Stats NZ’s Overseas Merchandise Trade release. Footwear imports (HS 64) rose an even sharper +11.0 percent to NZD 43.5 million. The divergence between imports rising and till-level spending falling is the classic signature of inventory building ahead of a softening consumer — Kiwi retailers still took delivery of spring/winter stock in March even as March card spending on apparel collapsed.

Consumer sentiment and retailer outlook (March)

The demand backdrop turned sharply in March. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell from 100.1 in February to 91.3 in March, according to ANZ Research, reflecting Middle East conflict uncertainty and petrol-price increases. Within the sentiment detail, the “good time to buy a major household item” measure — the single best retail-leading indicator in the ANZ-Roy Morgan bundle — fell 10 points to a net minus 14. Two-year-ahead consumer inflation expectations jumped a full percentage point to 5.7 percent. The business-side view was even weaker. The ANZ Business Outlook for March showed headline business confidence falling 26 points to 33, with the retail sector dropping particularly sharply: retail past activity fell 20 points to just plus 5 (the worst sector drop in the survey), retail profit expectations fell 24 points to plus 9, and retail pricing intentions rose to plus 3.0 percent — the highest in the survey. Cost expectations across all sectors ran at 85 percent net, the highest reading since May 2023. For NZ fashion retailers, the combination is a classic margin-squeeze: weaker demand, stronger cost pressure, limited ability to pass through prices.

Monetary policy and currency

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has held the Official Cash Rate at 2.25 percent since November 2025, following a 325-basis-point easing cycle from the May 2023 peak of 5.50 percent — cuts delivered across 11 decisions between August 2024 and November 2025 (15 months). It is one of the deepest easing cycles among Tier 1 OECD economies in the period. The New Zealand dollar weakened 2.7 percent against the US dollar in March, averaging 1.7099 NZD per USD versus 1.6647 in February. Against the euro the decline was more muted at 0.4 percent.

Note: this article combines the most recent official data available at the time of writing. Reporting lags differ by indicator and country, so not all figures refer to the same month. Each data point is labelled with its reference period.