NRF report: holiday sales grow 4.1 percent, driven by consumer spending surge

Data released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and CNBC Retail Monitor indicates that the 2025 holiday season achieved record spending levels, aligning with the upper end of industry forecasts. Total holiday sales from November 1 through December 31 grew 4.1 percent, meeting the NRF projection of a 3.7 percent to 4.2 percent increase to surpass one trillion dollars for the first time.

Matthew Shay, president and chief executive officer of the NRF, stated that the December data reflected a surge in growth as consumers prioritised seasonal spending. Shay noted that continued economic momentum has reaffirmed the solid financial footing of the US consumer heading into the new year.

Clothing and sporting goods lead category growth

December sales saw broad-based monthly gains across all nine tracked categories, with six sectors reporting year-over-year (YoY) increases. The fashion and leisure sectors were particularly robust. Clothing and accessories store sales rose 2.05 percent month-over-month (MoM) and 6.11 percent YoY, sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores sector grew 3.52 percent MoM and 5.16 percent YoY, general merchandise stores saw revenue increase of 2.9 percent MoM and 3.42 percent YoY and digital product sales for items such as electronic books and games climbed 0.98 percent MoM and 3.6 percent YoY.

The timing of the 2025 calendar also influenced the results; a late Thanksgiving shifted Cyber Monday into December, contributing an additional high-volume trading day to the monthly data.

Core retail performance and data methodology

Total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, increased 1.26 percent seasonally adjusted MoM and 3.54 percent unadjusted YoY in December. Core retail sales, which further exclude restaurants, grew 1.6 percent MoM and 3.58 percent YoY. For the full year 2025, the Retail Monitor calculated a total sales increase of 4.93 percent over 2024, with core sales rising 5.08 percent.

Unlike US Census Bureau figures, which are survey-based and subject to revision, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor utilizes anonymized credit and debit card purchase data provided by Affinity Solutions. This methodology captures actual consumer spending in real-time, providing a definitive overview of retail health during the peak trading window.

Sector-specific trends

The grocery and beverage sector maintained steady performance with a 0.33 percent MoM increase and 2.85 percent YoY growth. Health and personal care stores also trended positively, reporting a 1.92 percent MoM rise. These figures suggest that while consumers prioritised discretionary holiday gifts, essential categories remained resilient throughout the final month of the year.