Milan - According to Confcommercio, the current threats of the American administration towards Europe appear surreal. According to a report released today, 24 March 2025, by the Italian Confcommercio Research Office, European goods exports to the US in 2023 totaled approximately 504 billion euros, while imports reached over 347 billion euros, resulting in a trade surplus of 157 billion euros for Europe. On the contrary, European service exports to the US from the EU-27 were nearly 319 billion euros, while imports from the US exceeded 427 billion euros, creating a 108 billion euro surplus for the United States. For example, data from the General Confederation of Italian Enterprises, representing over 700,000 companies, indicates the actual overall trade balance, detrimental to the US economy due to trade with the EU-27, is approximately 52 billion dollars, equivalent to 0.18 percent of US GDP.

Consumer Spending Down in February (-0.9 percent); Clothing Sector Recovers (+1.4 percent)

Official economic indicators for the first two months of this year show growth, albeit slow, rather than a decline. Overall, the seasonally adjusted estimates from the ICC-Confcommercio consumer indicator remain positive, showing a +0.2% increase in January and +0.1% in February. However, the raw, calendar-adjusted figures show a decrease, with February experiencing a 0.9% drop. This is partly due to the comparison with February 2024, which was a leap month.

"Despite having more disposable income, consumers are not necessarily spending more. This issue remains unresolved. In the first two months of the year, consumer spending was driven by leisure activities and tourism. Recreational services and goods, hotels and restaurants, air travel, and telecommunications all saw significant increases. Conversely, spending on food, transportation, furniture, and household appliances decreased. Clothing and footwear fell somewhere in between these extremes," notes Confcommercio.

Conditions for Consumer Spending Recovery Exist, but 0.8% GDP Target Remains Challenging

Monthly GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in March, in both trend and seasonally adjusted terms, following moderate increases in January and February (+0.3% and +0.1%, respectively). First-quarter growth is projected to be 0.4% compared to the same period in 2024. "Therefore, to achieve the overall 2025 growth target of 0.8%, which will not benefit from favorable statistical corrections as it did last year, an acceleration is needed. This is possible, but it will require considerable effort," explain the experts at the Research Office.

Trends in Consumer Spending

The dynamics of the various components of the Confcommercio consumer indicator remained complex in February 2025, indicating ongoing challenges for consumer spending to gain momentum. Among the different spending categories, communication goods and services continued to show the strongest annual growth (+5.3%). Demand for hotels, meals, and out-of-home consumption also remained positive (+1.3%), a sector that continues to benefit from foreign demand. In February, there were notable signs of recovery in clothing and footwear consumption (+1.4%), improving upon the less favorable results of January sales.

This article was translated to English using an AI tool.