Will COP30 deliver for cotton? The fibre at the frontline of fashion’s climate crisis

COP30 began this week amid controversy, as a new four-lane highway carved through tens of thousands of acres of protected Amazon rainforest to host the conference, a jarring backdrop for an event dedicated to climate action. Against this uneasy start, cotton finds itself at the sharp edge of the fashion industry’s own climate reckoning. A decade after the Paris Agreement, the world’s most widely used natural fibre remains deeply vulnerable to heat, drought and flooding, even as it underpins a trillion-dollar global supply chain that shows few signs of decarbonising fast enough.

Cotton supports around 100 million farming households across more than 80 countries, according to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC). Yet climate volatility is undermining yields from India to West Africa. The World Bank warns that, without adaptation, rising temperatures and erratic rainfall could reduce cotton yields in South Asia by as much as 20 percent by 2050.

The past decade has seen progress, but not transformation. Better Cotton now represents roughly 22 percent of global production, and regenerative agriculture programmes are expanding. However, OECD and FAO data suggest that sustainability risks, especially water scarcity and soil degradation, remain high. Meanwhile, the fashion sector’s emissions have risen 7.5 percent since 2023, according to the Business of Fashion Sustainability Index, pushing it off track for its 2030 goals.

Progress, not transformation

What cotton now wants from COP30 is practical support, not pledges. Sector experts are calling for dedicated adaptation finance to help farmers adopt drought-resistant seed varieties, precision irrigation, and soil-restorative practices. The UNFCCC has also urged governments and brands to include cotton cultivation and processing in national decarbonisation plans, noting that fertiliser use and energy-intensive ginning remain major emissions sources.

Equity is another pillar of the debate. In South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, women make up a significant share of the cotton workforce yet often lack access to credit, training, and market data. Studies cited by The Guardian show that empowering female growers strengthens resilience and productivity across entire communities.

Finally, the circularity challenge looms large. With an estimated 92 million tonnes of textile waste generated each year, according to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, scaling fibre recycling and reducing reliance on virgin cotton have become climate imperatives.

For the fashion industry, COP30 is not simply another round of negotiations, it’s a test of credibility. Cotton sits at the crossroads of agriculture, design, and sustainability. Whether it becomes a casualty or a catalyst will depend on whether policymakers, brands, and investors finally treat fibre systems as central to climate action, not peripheral to it.

COP30 runs until 21st November.