NRF predicts record spend for Valentine’s Day

Valentine’s Day is fast approaching, meaning shoppers are likely already on the hunt for meaningful gifts and experiences. After strong spending over the festive period, the National Retail Federation (NRF) is anticipating continued positivity, projecting a new high in sales for Valentine’s Day.

The organisation said consumer spending is expected to reach a record 29.1 billion dollars, surpassing the previous record set in 2025 of 27.5 billion dollars. This is according to an annual survey by both the NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics, in which it was also suggested that shoppers were budgeting a record 199.78 dollars on average for gifts.

In a statement, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights, Katherine Cullen, said that spending growth for the “cherished holiday” is driven by middle- and high-income shoppers “who are expanding their gift lists to include friends, co-workers and even pets in addition to loved ones”.

Candy remains the most popular gift, followed by flowers, greeting cards, an evening out and jewellery. NRF is expecting shoppers to spend a total of seven billion dollars on jewellery, making this category the most lucrative. Around 3.5 billion dollars is expected to be spent on clothing.

Online was cited as the most popular shopping destination, with 38 percent of shoppers stating they would use digital platforms, aligning with trends seen in recent years. Department stores followed at 35 percent, then discount stores at 30 percent and speciality stores at 21 percent.