US holiday sales forecast to surpass one trillion dollars for first time

The US’ National Retail Federation (NRF) has outlined its annual holiday forecast for the November and December shopping season, during which it is anticipating record figures despite notable headwinds throughout the year.

According to the organisation, retail sales for the final two months of 2025 will grow between 3.7 and 4.2 percent compared to last year. As such, total spending is expected to sit between 1.01 and 1.02 trillion dollars, surpassing the trillion dollar mark for the first time.

Such figures could be bolstered by a sharp increase in spending among US consumers, who are said to be planning to spend 890.49 dollars per person on average this year on various seasonal items, as NRF’s latest holiday survey stated.

In a statement, NRF president and CEO, Matthew Shay, said: “American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive US economic activity. We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”

The current shutdown of the federal government was cited as a notable headwind for the market, causing delays in federal spending that could impact private-sector income and therefore consumer demand. NRF said negative economic impacts are expected to be temporary, however their “magnitude will escalate the longer the shutdown lasts”.

Despite this, NRF’s chief economist and executive director of research, Mark Matthews, said: “The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation. As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices given the uncertainty about trade policies.”