Will Trump's Presidency affect holiday spending in the U.S.?

As Donald J. Trump has been named the president elect for the U.S., it’s a mystery what will become of the nation as well as its economy and businesses. For the fashion industry, it is clear that the presidency will have an impact on retail, although not anytime soon.

For the rest of the year, it seems that Trump’s presidency won’t cause too much of a difference. According to Conlumino's Election 2016 briefing, “most consumers share the view that not much will change over the remainder of this year.” Immediately after the election news, it seemed that consumers may have been stalled to make any sudden purchases. Forbes stated that both small and large purchases would be stalled as the market was in a state of “paralysis” because of the unexpected win. However, as the holidays are nearing, it seems that the retail market may not be affected. The briefing states that as far as the holiday retail season, the spending plans of most consumers will remain as expected. Additionally, _ reports that there will be no “immediate impact on household finances or the economy in general,” which further stabilizes the holiday retail forecast for this year.

In the longer sense however, it’s expected that the presidency will make some waves. It’s unclear to the U.S., as well as the world, in exactly which way the country will change; but a massive development is expected as a result of a Trump win. Some of the ways that the new President-Elect could change things due to policy terms. As reported by Conlumino in the Election 2016 briefing, the policy outlook for retailers is “mixed with tax policies being favorable but trade policies looking more problematic.” For quite some time, Trump has stated repeatedly of his plans to get rid of the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal, which currently helps promote trade between 11 other countries and the U.S. If he is successful in this policy change, the effects on retail and the fashion industry will be substantial.

Donald Trump may make policy changes affecting retail and trade

When polled according to Conlumino consumer research, consumers were mostly split on whether or not the presidency would have a positive or negative effect on the economy. Approximately 43.3 percent believed that the economy would face a negative effect from a Trump presidency, with 40.5 percent voting they foresaw a positive effect.

As an overall effect, retail will have positive results, however not without any compromises. The briefing states that “over the medium term retail will find domestic demand slightly stronger, but will also face higher costs from a less favorable trade and labor policy.” Due to the increase in demand yet the higher costs in trade policies, the retail industry may not be favorable nor negative. It seems that as a result of a Trump presidency, the conclusive effects may even out.

For the immediate future, it’s presumable that the retail industry is safe. The real aftermath of the election results won’t have any real effect until a couple of more months. While the industry is balanced for now, after Trump officially takes office in January, the fate of retail may be a different story.

Photos: Conlumino